In a follow-up study, the third in a series of analyses performed since 2002, the Oxford Research Group has produced an extensive study on the expected result of an Israeli military attack on Iran's nuclear weapon's facilities. This study is titled, "Military Action Against Iran: Impact and Effects".
This is a very good read, some relevant information from the 14-page study is listed below, there is much much more in the report and I highly suggest anyone interested in middle east issues read it.
Also, Raw Story has a good article on the report here: Study, Attack on Iran would be the 'Start of Long War'
Key Points
Many sections of the Israeli political elite regard the Iranian nuclear and missile programme as an existential threat to Israel. If there is no progress to curtail Iran’s nuclear ambitions by other means, there is significant Israeli support for military action. This might also extend to renewed action by Israel in southern Lebanon to counter the progressive re-arming of Hezbollah militias by Iran.
Israel has become the most likely aggressor in a pre-emptive strike against Iran.
The earlier (2006) Oxford Research Group analysis of the consequences of a war with Iran (cited above) concentrated on the impact of a US operation. Although contingency war plans for strikes on Iran may exist within US Central Command, the greater current risk is of an Israeli action, specifically intended to limit Iran’s ability to develop a nuclear weapons programme. While noting the US context, this paper therefore concentrates on Israeli capabilities and possible Iranian responses to such an attack.
Israel has recently acquired the resources for performing a sustained series of long-range strikes against Iran.
That has now changed with the deployment of long-range versions of the US F-15 and F-16 strike aircraft– the F-15I Ra’am and the F-16I Sufa. 25 of the F-15I are now in squadron service together with a force of 102 F-16I aircraft in four squadrons. (9) Deliveries of the planes started in 2003 and are now complete. The Israeli Air Force is also acquiring 500 earth penetrating bombs from the United States for use against underground facilities.
There are unconfirmed reports that some or all of the F-15I strike aircraft have been fitted with conformal fuel tanks to increase range, but the Israeli Air Force does in any case have a fleet of tanker aircraft. The most significant of these are the KC-707 Re’em aircraft. Although based on the elderly Boeing 707 airframe, these have been substantially upgraded and an eighth plane was recently added to the fleet, following a $23-million contract with Israeli Aerospace Industries.
Later in the report they determine that an initial series of strikes against Iran will lead to a sustained war and multiple strikes repeatedly driving into Iran to attempt to destroy it's nuclear production facilities.
Perhaps the most important aspect of an Israel attack on Iranian nuclear and missile facilities is that it would almost certainly be the beginning of a long-term process of regular air strikes to further prevent the development of nuclear weapons and delivery systems. From Israel’s perspective, there will already be recognition that an Iranian response would be an attempted nuclear break-out, rather than a termination of the programme. Hence, once Israel had started to limit Iranian nuclear and missile developments, it could not easily stop.
This is consistent with Israel's recent request for additional u.s. military equipment being "stored" in Israel from (meaning it is not listed as military aid but rather is considered remaining under u.s. military control) This information was also included in a piece from this diarist posted on June 28th:
Preparations Underway (Ha'aretz)
Israel is also seeking to increase the amount of gear held by the American army in their emergency stores in Israel by 50% - from $800 million to $1.2 billion. The Obama administration placed the stores in Israel in December, as part of a number of steps to improve U.S. assistance to Israeli security. To date, $600 million worth of American emergency equipment has been placed in Israel.
The American stores hold rockets, bombs, aircraft ammunition and armored vehicles, along with other weapons. The gear fully matches equipment already used by the Israel Defense Forces and is cataloged upon arrival to ensure quick and easy access at a time of need, pending permission from the United States. The American move has a dual purpose: bringing military equipment closer to areas in which Americans might need to fight, and assisting the U.S. ally should the need arise.
These actions are consistent with the implications of a sustained war with Lebanon and Syria that a series of attacks against Iran may provoke: from the study, it is likely that prior to an attack against Iran, the Israeli military will move against targets in Lebanon.
In attacking Iranian nuclear and missile facilities, Israel would recognise the risk of an indirect response from Hezbollah in Lebanon. In order to pre-empt this, Israel might act first in order to destroy as much of Hezbollah’s missiles as possible, especially in view of the rapid increase in the missile armaments since the 2006 war.
The final conclusion of this study is a dire warning:
The point to be stressed here is that this analysis indicates that the consequences of a military attack on Iran are so serious that they should not be encouraged in any shape or form.
And he is not kidding.
Missing Russian Plutonium Could Fuel 25 Nuclear Weapons, Former Air Force Chief Says Wednesday, Jan. 28, 2009
Soviet-era plutonium that was never accounted for after the Cold War could fuel roughly 25 nuclear weapons as powerful as the "Fat Man" atomic bomb dropped on Nagasaki in World War II, former Air Force Secretary Thomas Reed said Monday (see GSN, Dec. 9, 2008).
. . .
there is 310 to 360 pounds of plutonium lying around somewhere," Reed, co-author of the new book The Nuclear Express: a Political History of the Bomb and its Proliferation, told the Las Vegas Review-Journal.
The United States and Russia are "hard at work looking for" the material, said Reed, a former nuclear-weapon designer at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California (Keith Rogers, Las Vegas Review-Journal, Jan. 27).
